Suffering, the Safety Net, and Disparities During COVID-19

The economic and public health crisis caused by COVID-19 was devastating and disproportionately hurt Blacks and Hispanics and some other groups. Unemployment rates and other measures of material hardship were higher and increased more during the crisis among Blacks and Hispanics than among non-Hispanic Whites. Congress authorized a historic policy response, incorporating both targeted and universal supports, and expanding both the level and duration of benefits. This response yielded the remarkable result of an estimated decline in the Supplemental Poverty Measure between 2019 and 2020. We study administrative data to investigate the impact of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) during the crisis. We find that participation in SNAP increased more in counties that experienced a larger employment shock. By contrast, the increase in total SNAP benefits was inversely related to the employment shock. The SNAP benefit increases were less generous to Black and Hispanic SNAP participants than to White.

CYCLICALITY OF THE US SAFETY NET: EVIDENCE FROM THE 2000s AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE COVID-19 CRISIS

In this paper, we explore the cyclicality of the U.S. safety net over the 2000s through the economic peak in February 2020 before the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. We compare the effects of means-tested programs with those of social insurance programs, separately and combined. We find, on a per capita basis, Unemployment Insurance (UI) is by far the most cyclical, particularly when fully funded federal extensions are included. A 1-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 17 percent increase in monthly real UI spending. Overall, the social insurance programs provide an additional $31 (2019$) in per capita real spending for each percentage point increase in the annual unemployment rate, while the means-tested programs provide a statistically insignificant $8.50 per capita for each percentage point increase in unemployment. The means-tested programs without SSI provide a significant $12 for each percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. Thus, the parts of the means-tested safety net that can respond quickly are also providing modest countercyclical stabilization. We conclude by speculating what this means for the current response to COVID-19.